Market Situation – Compass – September '25

Market/Trade Information

Asia

• MSC and Hapag Lloyd have announced GRIs from mid-October on the Far East–Europe connection. They hope other carriers will rally together to increase the market to more sustainable rate levels for the shipping lines, as over the past weeks the rates have kept on going downwards. Although the current parameters actually contradict increasing the rate levels (Golden Week closure, low volumes anyway, limited void sailings, etc.) this is a clear sign that rates will need to go up in order to keep on deploying a similar service level (e.g., operating capacity, frequency of sailings).

• The Chinese prime minister has approved a new decree wherein countermeasures can be taken toward any country that refuses or restricts the berthing of Chinese built vessels in their ports. It is obviously a countermeasure to the levies imposed by the U.S. government on Chinese built and operated ships. The levies have had a limited effect thus far, as in the past months 53% of all new builds have been awarded to Chinese shipyards. For the moment no carriers are going to pass on extra costs when calling at U.S. ports with Chinese built vessels.

• Usually, China’s Golden Week (Oct 1-8) is a very calm period with regards to cargo being shipped out. Traditionally this is also reflected in the Shanghai Freight Index. Last week the index dropped by 7% towards Europe, and even close to 15% towards Dubai and Santos.

• Alphaliner has reviewed the Intra-Asia trade (excluding domestic trade), and the report revealed that Maersk increased the largest number of operated slots in the region over the past year. The number one carrier in the area remains Cosco group. In total the Intra-Asia market has 69 active providers. PIL was (percentage-wise) the strongest grower with a 116% increase in capacity. However, it is a fairly small carrier, so the nominal increase in market capacity is relatively limited.

• South China and multiple countries in South East Asia (Philippines, Vietnam and others) were hit at the end of September by Super Typhoon Ragasa. Several sea ports and airports were severely impacted, with several delays as a result.

Europe/ Mediterranean / Black Sea

• The Turkish port authorities have decided that vessels owned or operated by a company related to Israel are not allowed to call at Turkish ports anymore. The biggest impact will be on the Israeli carrier ZIM Lines. As a countermeasure, no Turkish ships are allowed to call at any Israeli port. ZIM has taken action for the ‘ZMP service’, connecting Asia with Turkey, shifting the calls of these vessels to ports in the West Med (e.g., Piraeus, Valencia). The connection to Turkey will be done with third party feeders.

• CMA CGM has acquired Freightliner UK Intermodal Logistics. The transaction includes rail and road operations, inland terminals, and other logistics operations. According to CMA, the goal of the acquisition is to reduce CO2 emissions in supply chains in the UK.

• Europe is facing strikes in multiple countries, affecting the smooth throughput of cargo. In France no new government has been formed, which triggered a protest of almost 1 million demonstrators on September 18th. Port operations were blocked during the strike. Belgium will face a nationwide strike on October 14th. The airport in Brussels will be heavily impacted, and many public bodies and schools will join the strike. The general impact remains uncertain, however. In the Netherlands, the air freight industry was hit by strikes by KLM ground staff at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport on September 24th and  October 1st. In Italy, nationwide demonstrations paralyzed ports, railways, and highways on October 3rd out of solidarity with Gaza. The congestion in North Europe was easing off in the ports. The impact of the strikes needs to be confirmed.

North and Central America

• The impact of the Turkish port authorities no longer allowing Israeli vessels (see Eur/Med/BS section) has also been felt on the Transatlantic trade. The ‘ZCA service’ connecting the Med with North America will cancel its call to Mersin and replace it with Damietta.

• The U.S. federal government has shut down after Republican and Democratic politicians failed to agree on the budget. It means that almost all U.S. government services are temporarily suspended. Services deemed essential will continue as normal, although in many cases staff will not be paid for the duration of the shutdown. Flight systems might get impacted as passport checks will probably take much longer, impacting flight schedules which will also impact airplanes with cargo. Sea ports should operate as  normal, however.

• Although multiple tariffs apply to imports into the U.S., the ocean imports have ‘only’ declined 2% year on year. A shift away from China is clear to see with a drop of 20%. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are the ‘winners’ as their imports to the U.S. have grown significantly.

Latin America

• By end of the year, Hapag Lloyd will cease to operate the ‘CES service’, which connects Santa Marta, Puerto Moin, and Cartagena with Antwerp. It is a very important service for reefer cargo. High operating costs have forced this decision. Alternatives have not yet been communicated but the best guess would be that Hapag buys slots on the new Maersk-operated ‘CAX service’ (Antwerp, Southampton, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Newark, Manzanillo (Panama), Puerto Antioquia, and Puerto Moin).

   

Red Sea and Gulf area

• The Houthi rebel group has published a list of 13 U.S. oil and shipping companies which they consider as targets for attacks, including Chevron and ExxonMobil. Also 9 CEOs or chairs have been added to the list as personal targets. This list is seen as a reaction to earlier sanctions from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control. Next to the sanctions, the Houthi rebels consider previous U.S. air attacks on Yemen as war crimes against the Yemeni people. This list and earlier attacks are their way of putting (economic) pressure on the U.S. government.

General information

• Global container orderbook hits record high. The orderbook for new container shipping tonnage reached 9.4 million TEUs in 2025, with the last months still to go. The amount of tonnage is an all-time high. Percentage-wise this is equal to 29% of the existing fleet which is also an absolute record. With slowing global volume growth and widening overcapacity, this might pull down rates even further.

• Carriers’ average operating margin slips below 10%. The average operating margin for the leading container carriers fell to its lowest point in a year and a half. It was the worst result since the fourth quarter of 2023 (first reports post-COVID). The Red Sea crisis reversed these numbers abruptly. However, current numbers are falling while the Red Sea crisis continues. These numbers are consolidated from the 9 largest container carriers. To put it into perspective, Wan Hai reported a margin of almost 17%, while ONE (a much larger carrier) reported the lowest margin with only 0.9%. MSC and CMA do not report any EBIT numbers so they are not taken into account. However, when comparing Q2 ’25 to Q2 ’24 for other large carriers, we see an EBIT drop of 51% for Maersk, 64% for Hapag, 47% for Cosco, and as much as 94% for ONE. CMA and MSC will be in a similar range as the others with ONE being the (negative) exception.

• Maersk has declared ‘General Average’ for MV “Marie Maersk”. In August the MV “Marie Maersk” had a fire on board. Shippers with cargo onboard need to share the costs associated with saving the vessel and cargo.

• The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) goes into its next phase at the end of 2025. The legislation was first introduced by the European Union in 2023 to help protect forests and the environment. For the EUDR, companies must collect and share detailed information about where certain products come from. All companies operating in wood, rubber, soy, cacao, coffee, beef, and palm oil and derivatives will be affected. Large and medium companies will have to comply from the end of 2025. More info can be found here: Regulation on Deforestation-free products - Environment