Market Situation – Compass – Summer '25

Market/Trade Information

Asia

• Rates out of Asia remain very volatile. Rate drops and increases follow each other in quick succession. It also greatly depends per trade. On the Transpacific the rates have gone down very sharply in a short period. To Europe rates have also gone down. However, these fluctuations are limited to <5%. The rates to the Middle East and to Australia have gone up by 7%. The market out of Asia remains very ‘fickle’.

• Transshipment delays keep occurring in multiple hubs. The main issues are in Colombo and Singapore, with average feeder waiting times of 7-10 days.

• Chinese customs will implement zero-tariff treatment for 53 African countries to strengthen the trade ties between China and Africa. This policy is not new. Back in December, China decided to apply zero-tariff rates to a few ‘least-developed’ countries in Africa. Export figures to these countries have seen double-digit growth in the first half of 2025. The vast majority of shipped products are machines linked to the agricultural and textile industries.

• China has suspended imports for Argentine poultry products from August 20, just five months after lifting a two-year ban. This comes on top of a ban on poultry imports from its largest supplier, Brazil, in May, and on imports from Spain earlier this month. Chinese authorities cite bird flu outbreaks as the reason for these bans.

Europe/ Mediterranean / Black Sea

• Maersk has quadrupled its capacity on the Intra-North-Europe trade, making it the second biggest carrier in terms of operating capacity, right after MSC. The disproportionally high growth in capacity is no surprise, as this is an effect of the hub-&-spoke concept that Maersk implemented in the Gemini cooperation.

• The yard density in the main North European ports seems to be easing off bit by bit. Some terminals and peak moments still cause long waiting times for delivering or picking up containers but it seems less critical than a few weeks back. In Belgium, nonetheless, several trucking companies have announced that they are implementing a ‘temporary’ surcharge to cover the current situation of longer waiting times, leading to a higher cost structure.

• Although pressure is easing off slightly, yard density remains high, causing the terminal operators to apply even stricter rules with regards to container closings, VGM rulings, the application of free times, and so on. As an example, if a VGM deviates too greatly from the booking instruction when arriving on quay, a restacking fee, weight discrepancy fee or other surcharge might be charged to the customer who gave the ‘wrong’ instruction. The terminals apply this to make everyone aware that correct instruction will lead to more safety on quay and a more efficient stacking of the containers.

• Yang Ming is reducing its two services to only a single service for the network in Europe and the Mediterranean region. From September 6, the North Europe-Aegean Express (NEA) service (London Gateway – Antwerp – Rotterdam – Piraeus – Istanbul – Gebze – Gemlik – Aliaga – Piraeus – London Gateway) will cease to exist. The North Europe-Levant Express (NEL) service (London Gateway – Rotterdam – Hamburg – Antwerp – El-Dekheila – Damietta – Mersin – London Gateway) will remain.

North and Central America

• A cargo surge from the Mediterranean area and Southeast Asia drove U.S. imports in July to an all-time high, even exceeding the pandemic-driven spikes. Inbound volumes jumped 17.5% year on year. The rest of the year, however, is widely expected to be rather weak for U.S. inbound trade as cargo owners did a lot of frontloading and buyers and sellers remain cautious about possible tariffs. The market remains rather unpredictable as tariff announcements can impact port rotations and schedules in response to changing market dynamics.

• On July 27, President Trump and EC President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new U.S.-EU trade agreement. This new agreement aims to rebalance the economic relationship between the two regions, and includes a flat 15% tariff for most EU-origin goods entering the U.S., replacing the previously proposed 30%. On steel and aluminum imports from the EU, a 50% tariff will apply, however. Future quota systems are also under discussion. The EU has reduced non-tariff barriers to stimulate U.S. industrial and agricultural exports.

Latin America

• The fresh fruit season in Peru and Chile is approaching. Shipping lines are preparing for the peak with extra capacity and reefer plugs.

• Bad weather conditions have impacted port operation across the region. In Colombia, severe floodings in the Amazon and Orinoquía regions have impacted local structures and even entire communities. Heavy rainfall is forecast throughout September.

• July traditionally is a very busy month for Colombia, as this is a key period for the country's agribusiness exports (coffee, flowers, avocados, and fresh fruit), mainly for markets in North America and Europe. These higher volumes put some additional pressure on the inland logistics and reefer availability.

• CMA and MSC have both launched direct services from Asia to Latam West Coast. They will not call at Mexico, to avoid delays in the Mexican ports.

• In Colombia, the new port of ‘Puerto Antioqia’ is nearing the start of operations. This new port is strategically located closer to the country’s economic zones.

Red Sea and Gulf area

• Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked two commercial cargo vessels between July 6 and 9. The Houthis sunk both ships, killing and injuring several crew members. According to reports, they detained six rescued crew members. On July 6, the MV Magic Seas was attacked. All 22 crew members were rescued by a passing merchant vessel. On July 7, the MV Eternity C was attacked. The attack continued on July 8 and the ship eventually sank on July 9. The crew of the Eternity C counted 25 people, of whom 4 are reported to be killed, 10 were rescued at sea and 11 remain unaccounted for. Out of these 11, 6 are believed to be in Houthi custody. These most recent attacks have extended the tensions and will delay any option to fully reopen the area to commercial vessels.

Indian Subcontinent

• In North and Central India, carriers are suffering shortages of equipment. Particularly in inland container depots, it is difficult to get containers released.

General information

• U.S. rejects IMO ‘Net-Zero’ framework. The environmental framework, which would introduce a new fuel standard for ships linked to a pricing mechanism for emissions, was approved in April 2025 by 63 member states including China, Brazil, and the EU countries. 16 states voted against, including the U.S. In October 2025, a vote is scheduled to enforce the new measure from 2027. To get this ratified, a two-thirds majority is needed. However, the U.S. said it ‘would not hesitate’ to retaliate against countries supporting the measure. So, although U.S. approval is not required, if they do not participate, it might jeopardize or undermine the idea of the framework to reduce emissions.

• CK Hutchison cancels billion-dollar deal with MSC. MSC planned to become the biggest terminal operator in the world by acquiring the Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison. However, the Chinese market supervisor took a closer look at the deal and said it would lead to ‘unfair competition’ and even to a ‘betrayal of national interests’. The initial deal included the sales of 43 container terminals in 23 countries, including the two strategic terminals on either side of the Panama Canal. This does not mean that MSC and BlackRock are out of the picture entirely. The deal is no longer exclusive, meaning other parties can step in. Most likely MSC and BlackRock will need to add an extra (Chinese) party to the consortium to have their deal reconsidered.