Market situation – container flows – February '26

Market/Trade Information

Asia

• Pre-Chinese New Year demand has slowed, resulting in low utilization of vessels and a softening market. Some void sailings were announced in response, but it will be only post-Chinese New Year that we can assess the impact. Although current rate levels are still in favor of the shipping lines, the decrease in rates is going at a speed wherein it is unclear if it is linked to lower volumes or to a fight for market share between carriers and big NVO’s. The new alliances are being implemented and several players in the market are taking a position to overcome expected hurdles and to overcome possible longer periods of less cargo.

• On the Trans-Pacific route, the carriers still aim to land much higher contract rates this year. The market on the Trans-Pacific route seems to be around 25% higher than the same period last year. In contrast to the Asia-Westbound route, the Trans-Pacific is much more ‘under control’ from a capacity and rate level point of view.

• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced their joint-Intra-Asia shuttle services which include at least 10 services: 4 Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, two East Asia dedicated shuttles and 4 dedicated Southeast Asia services. In addition to their Gemini-cooperation, the two carriers are introducing other cooperations, outside of their alliance.

Asia

·       Comparable to other trades, the spot rates out of Asia have risen as a consequence of the situation in the Middle East. The increased rates are mostly seen on the East-West connections like Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific.

·       Gemini Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk) will start a new service, the AE19/SE4, between Asia and Jeddah via the Suez Canal. The routing to keep in mind is: from Asia to Cape of Good Hope, to Algeciras or Tanger, to Port Said or Damietta and next through the Suez Canal to connect with Saudi Arabia.

Europe/Mediterranean/Black Sea

·       Already reported in earlier customer letters, since late December, the Northern Europe to/from Mediterranean trade has been materially impacted by severe weather across the Atlantic corridor, the Bay of Biscay, the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts, and the North Sea. Repeated storms with strong winds have prevented vessels from safely operating on these routes. In some cases, ports have remained closed for extended periods or operated with reduced productivity, leading to vessel queues and berth delays. Several vessels required shelter and this resulted in schedule disruption. This has resulted in irregular vessel arrivals which then again have increased pressure on Northern European terminals, with higher yard occupancy and dwell times.

·       To add to the problematic situation, the Belgian ports have faced strikes by the pilots heavily limiting ship movements in the port. Carriers have deviated to other ports leading to additional congestion at the quay as full containers are not loaded as planned.

·       The ports of Mersin and Iskenderun in Turkey will be used by MSC to connect to Iraq. The connection can be done by merchant or in carrier haulage.

·       Extensive railway infrastructure reconstructions in Germany are causing serious hiccups when connecting to the ports via rail. Because of this some rail operators will start charging a congestion surcharge or a rail infrastructure surcharge.

·       Although the Israeli ports (Haifa & Ashdod) remain operational, some restrictions have been implemented. Local port authorities have decided to limit some dangerous goods. ZIM also announced a War Risk Premium Charge as of March 12^th.

North and Central America

·       Continuing from the previous customer letter, which mentioned that the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL and EMC) decided to merge two services into a single service on the Trans-Atlantic trade, combined with strong loading figures on this trade have resulted in several shipping lines to announce a rate increase or a peak season surcharge. Due to FMC-rules, these announcements always need to be done at least one month before application. Most increases will therefore only apply as of April 1^st.

Latin America

·       Current operations on the East Coast are stable. The current weather conditions are favorable, and most ports are no longer struggling with high yard occupancy. Key ports such as Santos, Paranaguá and Itapúa remain busy and subject to out-of-window vessels.

·       A similar message is reported on the West Coast, only for a few seasonal volumes have caused periodic pressure on the market.

 Red Sea / Middle East

·       Iran is a big producer of raw materials to service neighboring countries and markets which still do or are doing business with Iran. Experts foresee serious shortages which will severely impact the production of certain products. As a consequence, cargo flow for these products will also be seriously impacted. In ‘normal’ times, Iran is a big importer of grain, which will mostly impact Russia as they were the main supplier. The second country to ship grain to Iran is Brazil.

·       An estimated 40% of urea, a base product for fertilizers, and half of the world’s sulfur is normally exported from the Gulf region. Because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, these base products for fertilizers are stuck. Some sources even report 23 bulk vessels loaded with fertilizers currently being ‘parked’ north of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

·       Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah is evolving into a key container gateway to the Persian Gulf countries whose supply chains have been severed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to Jeddah port, you also have King Abdullah Port acting as a possible gateway.

General information

·       The merger agreement between Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM is under review. Until the transaction closes, Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM remain competitors and do “business as usual”. The necessary approvals of regulatory authorities and ZIM shareholders are expected by late 2026 only.

Specific topic: Fuel Surcharges

·       Oil prices are skyrocketing and shipping lines are adjusting accordingly. Many shipping lines (almost all) have announced emergency bunker surcharges to compensate for the steep rise in oil prices. No contracts and no cargo types are exempt for the moment. Even if your cargo is not connected to the Middle East region, you will also see an increased cost. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the supply of gas (LNG) and oil to the shipping lines (and other industries). Apart from the steep rise in cost, concerns are arising regarding the actual availability of fuel. Several hubs are not being serviced or have seen a decreased supply, which might mean that shipping lines are diverted to other ports to bunker fuel. This can lead to additional delays and schedule changes.