Market Situation – Compass – End of the Year '25

Market/Trade Information

Asia

• The Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming) have published their East-West

  network for 2026. At first glance, the alliance will strengthen its presence in Southeast

  Asia, primarily by offering additional feeder services. This strategy is not a replication

  of Gemini’s “hub-and-spoke” model, but rather an effort to shorten vessel rotations to

  better manage capacity and improve schedule reliability. For ONE, the Japanese

  carrier, this means it will no longer offer a direct Japan-North Europe service.

• Carriers have begun publishing the blank sailing programs to cover the Lunar (Chinese)

  New Year 2026, which officially starts on February 17, 2026. While the public holiday

  period itself is limited, cargo volumes typically surge both before and after the holiday

  due to factory closings and vessel voids. These blank sailings traditionally result in rate

  increases on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trades.

• Higher freight rates ex Asia already indicate market nervousness as we gradually

  approach the Chinese New Year period. From October to November, bookings on the

  Asia-Europe trade increased by 36%. By shipping cargo as early as November

  shippers/receivers aim to anticipate the higher ETS-related costs effective January 1.

• On the Transpacific trade, rates have increased slightly; however, the market remains

  relatively weak due to low season and ongoing developments in U.S.-China trade

  relations.

Europe/ Mediterranean / Black Sea

• The Port of Genoa has received six electric rubber-tired gantry cranes (RTGs), which

  will be operated at the Vecon-terminal. These zero-emission cranes are part of a

  broader program to make Italian port terminals more environmentally sustainable. An

  additional six cranes will be delivered in April.

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will come into effect on January 1,

  2026. Under CBAM, only companies that hold the status of an Authorized CBAM

  Declarant (ACD) will be permitted to import CBAM-regulated goods into the EU customs

  territory. Companies importing such goods must apply for authorization via the EU CBAM Registry. Failure to comply may result in shipments being blocked by customs and

  financial penalties being imposed.

• Environmental charges applied by European container carriers are expected to rise sharply from next year as the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is further expanded on January 1. The maritime emissions offset program, introduced in 2024, initially

  required shipowners to purchase allowances covering 40% of their intra-European emissions, increasing to 70% in 2025. As of 2026, carriers will be required to offset 100% of emissions for voyages between European ports. In addition to CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions will also be included for the first time. Current expectations show that ETS-related surcharges may increase by approximately 45%.

North and Central America

• On the Transatlantic trade, the market remains relatively soft, as European retail

  demand and manufacturing activity continue to stagnate. Some carriers are

  implementing blank sailings to manage oversupply and support rate stability. Capacity to Montreal is the main exception, as it remains constrained due to draft restrictions.

Latin America

• Hapag-Lloyd, through their subsidiary Hanseatic Global Terminals, will acquire 50% ownership stake in the new Port of Aracruz, located north of Rio de Janeiro. The port is expected to become operational in 2028 and will have an annual capacity of

  approximately 1.2 million TEU. Aracruz is intended to function primarily as a

  transshipment hub. The remaining 50% stake will be held by the Brazilian Imetame

  Group, a diversified conglomerate mainly focused on metalworking and energy, which

  is also investing in port terminals across various cargo types to boost Brazil’s logistics infrastructure and trade competitiveness.

   

Red Sea and Middle East

A gradual return to transits via the Suez Canal appears to be underway. CMA CGM has been among the early movers, reintroducing two services, one from the Far East and one from India to the Eastern Mediterranean, operating on a weekly basis via the canal. According to the CMA CGM schedules, Jeddah is set to become a regular port of call again from February 2026, as it will be reintroduced into the Far East-North Europe loop.

However, expectation of a full-scale return to the Red Sea transits via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait should be tempered. Major carriers remain reluctant to reinstate thesepassages across their broader East-West services. While Maersk reportedly exploredrestarting an India-U.S. service via the Red Sea, its Gemini partner, Hapag-Lloyd, declined due to concerns raised by its U.S.-based customers.

Africa

According to Alphaliner, Africa-related container services recorded the strongest capacity growth of all trades in 2025. Total capacity increased by 27.3%, driven primarily by expanded Asia-Africa services, clearly emphasizing the ambitions of China to grow trade with Africa. Capacity on Europe-Africa routes also increased, with year-over-year growth of 9.6%.

General information

Container carrier ZIM has announced that it is conducting a “strategic review of alternatives.” ZIM’s board of directors, representing the world’s 10th-largest carrier by global capacity, has confirmed that several proposals are under consideration. One option is a management buyout, led by current CEO and president Eli Glickman. Another possibility is a takeover by a competing shipping line; Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and Maersk are all reported to have expressed interest.

Among these, Hapag Lloyd’s interest seems to be the most concrete. However, its existing shareholdings by Qatar Holding and the Saudi Public Investment Fund make this option politically sensitive, particularly for ZIM employees, who have already protested such a scenario. MSC, meanwhile, has historically focused on taking over maritime-related companies rather than shipping lines, making its involvement less likely. Currently, no concrete or confirmed details are available regarding any of these options.

ZIM has been publicly listed on the New York Stock Exchange for just five years. The value of ZIM however is strongly impacted by not only market conditions but also by geopolitical factors. While the company carries a significant debt load, it also maintains a substantial cash position. However, as a high-cost operator in a weak container market, this cash buffer could erode quickly.

Any potential acquisition of ZIM could be complicated by a special ‘State Share’ issued in 2004, when the company was privatized. Under this arrangement, a potential buyer that would exceed 24% of the stock must first notify the State of Israel, while ownership over 35% requires formal Israeli government approval. The State Share requires the company to remain incorporated in Israel, and at least a majority of the members of the Board of Directors, including the chairperson of the board and CEO, must be Israeli citizens. The company must also maintain a fleet of at least 11 vessels, including a minimum of three cargo vessels. In addition, any merger, spin-off, or winding-up of the company requires written consent from the State of Israel, unless the State Share remains fully effective.

Looking back on 2025 and what lays ahead in 2026?

Looking back on 2025, we have seen a lot of social unrest across the globe, with Northern Europe being particularly affected. Work laydowns or strikes often resulted in bottlenecks which lasted for multiple days due to the already congested infrastructure.

Looking ahead to 2026, we can only repeat what many have said already in the meantime: be agile and resilient to change. Geopolitical tensions, changing tariffs, trade wars, social actions and certainly, not to forget, supply chain disruptions due to climate (hurricanes, storms, flooding, heavy winds, …) are expected to continue. Freight rate fluctuations will remain because of uncertain events and both government and business decisions (e.g., void sailings, re-routing of services, …). The current market indicates weak rates across almost all trades which may lead to numerous Peak Seasons, General Rate Increases, and opportunistic behaviors from shipping lines in both the spot and long-term contract markets. This could include capacity crunching, breaking contract rates, and premium pricing, often driven by the carriers’ need to maintain profitability.

A full-fledged return to the Suez Canal appears increasingly possible. The impact on rates remains uncertain, but from an operational and logistics perspective, it is likely to cause temporary congestion and peaks at ports in Europe, the Mediterranean, and potentially Asia. Schedules will need to be adjusted, and overcapacity may shift to other trades.